The Thoracic Research Evaluation and Treatment 2.0 Model: A Lung Cancer Prediction Model for Indeterminate Nodules Referred for Specialist Evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Appropriate risk stratification of indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs) is necessary to direct diagnostic evaluation. Currently available models were developed in populations with lower cancer prevalence than that seen in thoracic surgery and pulmonology clinics and usually do not allow for missing data. We updated and expanded the Thoracic Research Evaluation and Treatment (TREAT) model into a more generalized, robust approach for lung cancer prediction in patients referred for specialty evaluation. RESEARCH QUESTION: Can clinic-level differences in nodule evaluation be incorporated to improve lung cancer prediction accuracy in patients seeking immediate specialty evaluation compared with currently available models? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Clinical and radiographic data on patients with IPNs from six sites (N = 1,401) were collected retrospectively and divided into groups by clinical setting: pulmonary nodule clinic (n = 374; cancer prevalence, 42%), outpatient thoracic surgery clinic (n = 553; cancer prevalence, 73%), or inpatient surgical resection (n = 474; cancer prevalence, 90%). A new prediction model was developed using a missing data-driven pattern submodel approach. Discrimination and calibration were estimated with cross-validation and were compared with the original TREAT, Mayo Clinic, Herder, and Brock models. Reclassification was assessed with bias-corrected clinical net reclassification index and reclassification plots. RESULTS: Two-thirds of patients had missing data; nodule growth and fluorodeoxyglucose-PET scan avidity were missing most frequently. The TREAT version 2.0 mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve across missingness patterns was 0.85 compared with that of the original TREAT (0.80), Herder (0.73), Mayo Clinic (0.72), and Brock (0.68) models with improved calibration. The bias-corrected clinical net reclassification index was 0.23. INTERPRETATION: The TREAT 2.0 model is more accurate and better calibrated for predicting lung cancer in high-risk IPNs than the Mayo, Herder, or Brock models. Nodule calculators such as TREAT 2.0 that account for varied lung cancer prevalence and that consider missing data may provide more accurate risk stratification for patients seeking evaluation at specialty nodule evaluation clinics.

Racial Disparities in Lung Cancer Stage of Diagnosis Among Adults Living in the Southeastern United States.

BACKGROUND: Black Americans receive a diagnosis at later stage of lung cancer more often than White Americans. We undertook a population-based study to identify factors contributing to racial disparities in lung cancer stage of diagnosis among low-income adults. RESEARCH QUESTION: Which multilevel factors contribute to racial disparities in stage of lung cancer at diagnosis? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Cases of incident lung cancer from the prospective observational Southern Community Cohort Study were identified by linkage with state cancer registries in 12 southeastern states. Logistic regression shrinkage techniques were implemented to identify individual-level and area-level factors associated with distant stage diagnosis. A subset of participants who responded to psychosocial questions (eg, racial discrimination experiences) were evaluated to determine if model predictive power improved. RESULTS: We identified 1,572 patients with incident lung cancer with available lung cancer stage (64% self-identified as Black and 36% self-identified as White). Overall, Black participants with lung cancer showed greater unadjusted odds of distant stage diagnosis compared with White participants (OR,1.29; 95% CI, 1.05-1.59). Greater neighborhood area deprivation was associated with distant stage diagnosis (OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.19-2.11). After controlling for individual- and area-level factors, no significant difference were found in distant stage disease for Black vs White participants. However, participants with COPD showed lower odds of distant stage diagnosis in the primary model (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.53-0.98). Interesting and complex interactions were observed. The subset analysis model with additional variables for racial discrimination experiences showed slightly greater predictive power than the primary model. INTERPRETATION: Reducing racial disparities in lung cancer stage at presentation will require interventions on both structural and individual-level factors.

Semi-supervised Machine Learning with MixMatch and Equivalence Classes.

Semi-supervised methods have an increasing impact on computer vision tasks to make use of scarce labels on large datasets, yet these approaches have not been well translated to medical imaging. Of particular interest, the MixMatch method achieves significant performance improvement over popular semi-supervised learning methods with scarce labels in the CIFAR-10 dataset. In a complementary approach, Nullspace Tuning on equivalence classes offers the potential to leverage multiple subject scans when the ground truth for the subject is unknown. This work is the first to (1) explore MixMatch with Nullspace Tuning in the context of medical imaging and (2) characterize the impacts of the methods with diminishing labels. We consider two distinct medical imaging domains: skin lesion diagnosis and lung cancer prediction. In both cases we evaluate models trained with diminishing labeled data using supervised, MixMatch, and Nullspace Tuning methods as well as MixMatch with Nullspace Tuning together. MixMatch with Nullspace Tuning together is able to achieve an AUC of 0.755 in lung cancer diagnosis with only 200 labeled subjects on the National Lung Screening Trial and a balanced multi-class accuracy of 77% with only 779 labeled examples on HAM10000. This performance is similar to that of the fully supervised methods when all labels are available. In advancing data driven methods in medical imaging, it is important to consider the use of current state-of-the-art semi-supervised learning methods from the greater machine learning community and their impact on the limitations of data acquisition and annotation.

Evaluation of USPSTF Lung Cancer Screening Guidelines Among African American Adult Smokers.

IMPORTANCE: The United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends low-dose computed tomography screening for lung cancer. However, USPSTF screening guidelines were derived from a study population including only 4% African American smokers, and racial differences in smoking patterns were not considered. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of USPSTF lung cancer screening eligibility criteria in a predominantly African American and low-income cohort. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Southern Community Cohort Study prospectively enrolled adults visiting community health centers across 12 southern US states from March 25, 2002, through September 24, 2009, and followed up for cancer incidence through December 31, 2014. Participants included African American and white current and former smokers aged 40 through 79 years. Statistical analysis was performed from May 11, 2016, to December 6, 2018. EXPOSURES: Self-reported race, age, and smoking history. Cumulative exposure smoking histories encompassed most recent follow-up questionnaires. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident lung cancer cases assessed for eligibility for lung cancer screening using USPSTF criteria. RESULTS: Among 48 364 ever smokers, 32 463 (67%) were African American and 15 901 (33%) were white, with 1269 incident lung cancers identified. Among all 48 364 Southern Community Cohort Study participants, 5654 of 32 463 African American smokers (17%) were eligible for USPSTF screening compared with 4992 of 15 901 white smokers (31%) (P < .001). Among persons diagnosed with lung cancer, a significantly lower percentage of African American smokers (255 of 791; 32%) was eligible for screening compared with white smokers (270 of 478; 56%) (P < .001). The lower percentage of eligible lung cancer cases in African American smokers was primarily associated with fewer smoking pack-years among African American vs white smokers (median pack-years: 25.8 [interquartile range, 16.9-42.0] vs 48.0 [interquartile range, 30.2-70.5]; P < .001). Racial disparity was observed in the sensitivity and specificity of USPSTF guidelines between African American and white smokers for all ages. Lowering the smoking pack-year eligibility criteria to a minimum 20-pack-year history was associated with an increased percentage of screening eligibility of African American smokers and with equitable performance of sensitivity and specificity compared with white smokers across all ages (for a 55-year-old current African American smoker, sensitivity increased from 32.2% to 49.0% vs 56.5% for a 55-year-old white current smoker; specificity decreased from 83.0% to 71.6% vs 69.4%; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Current USPSTF lung cancer screening guidelines may be too conservative for African American smokers. The findings suggest that race-specific adjustment of pack-year criteria in lung cancer screening guidelines would result in more equitable screening for African American smokers at high risk for lung cancer.

Protein structure aids predicting functional perturbation of missense variants in SCN5A and KCNQ1.

Rare variants in the cardiac potassium channel KV7.1 (KCNQ1) and sodium channel NaV1.5 (SCN5A) are implicated in genetic disorders of heart rhythm, including congenital long QT and Brugada syndromes (LQTS, BrS), but also occur in reference populations. We previously reported two sets of NaV1.5 (n = 356) and KV7.1 (n = 144) variants with in vitro characterized channel currents gathered from the literature. Here we investigated the ability to predict commonly reported NaV1.5 and KV7.1 variant functional perturbations by leveraging diverse features including variant classifiers PROVEAN, PolyPhen-2, and SIFT; evolutionary rate and BLAST position specific scoring matrices (PSSM); and structure-based features including "functional densities" which is a measure of the density of pathogenic variants near the residue of interest. Structure-based functional densities were the most significant features for predicting NaV1.5 peak current (adj. R2 = 0.27) and KV7.1 + KCNE1 half-maximal voltage of activation (adj. R2 = 0.29). Additionally, use of structure-based functional density values improves loss-of-function classification of SCN5A variants with an ROC-AUC of 0.78 compared with other predictive classifiers (AUC = 0.69; two-sided DeLong test p = .01). These results suggest structural data can inform predictions of the effect of uncharacterized SCN5A and KCNQ1 variants to provide a deeper understanding of their burden on carriers.

Volume at First Leak Is Associated With Sling Failure Among Women With Stress Urinary Incontinence.

INTRODUCTION: Stress urinary incontinence at a low bladder volume is a clinically observed phenomenon that is not well studied with regard to treatment outcomes. The primary aim of our study was to determine if the volume at first leak is associated with sling outcome. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study evaluating whether urodynamic stress urinary incontinence observed at low volumes is associated with sling failure using the Synthetic Derivative database. Sling failure was defined as (1) undergoing a subsequent surgery for stress incontinence (eg, urethral bulking agent, repeat sling) or (2) leakage that was subjectively worse or unchanged from baseline. Sling success was defined as subjective improvement in incontinence or being dry. Intrinsic sphincter deficiency was defined as maximum urethral closure pressure 20 cm H20 or less or abdominal leak point pressure less than 60 cm H20. RESULTS: Outcome data were available for 168 of 206 women who underwent a sling after urodynamic testing from 2006 to 2014. Of the 168 women, 80 were transobturator, 79 were retropubic, 8 lacked data regarding the approach to the midurethral sling, and 1 was an autologous pubovaginal sling. Similar failure rates were seen for transobturator (10%) and retropubic slings (7.6%). Preoperative urodynamic parameters, such as cystometric capacity and intrinsic sphincter deficiency, were similar among failed and successful slings. For every additional 50 mL in bladder volume at first leak (SUIvol), there was a 1.6 increased odds of having a successful sling (odds ratio, 1.576; 95% confidence interval, 1.014-2.450; P = 0.04). There was no statistically significant association between maximum urethral closure pressure, abdominal leak point pressure, body mass index, age, sling type, or whether a prior anti-incontinence procedure had been performed and sling success. CONCLUSIONS: Bladder volume at first leak is a strong predictor of sling failure.

Accuracy of a Novel Histoplasmosis Enzyme Immunoassay to Evaluate Suspicious Lung Nodules.

BACKGROUND: Granulomas caused by infectious lung diseases present as indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs) on radiography. Newly available serum enzyme immunoassay (EIA) for histoplasmosis has not been studied for the evaluation of IPNs. We investigated serum biomarkers of histoplasmosis antibodies as an indication of benign disease in IPNs from a highly endemic region. METHODS: A total of 152 serum samples from patients presenting with pulmonary nodules ≤30 mm in maximum diameter were analyzed for histoplasmosis antibodies by immunodiffusion and EIA IgG and IgM tests. Serology and FDG-PET/CT scan diagnostic test characteristics were estimated and compared. RESULTS: Cancer prevalence was 55% (n = 83). Thirty-nine (26%) individuals were positive for IgG histoplasmosis antibodies. Twelve samples were IgM antibody positive. Immunodiffusion serology was similar to IgM antibody results with 13 positive tests. Diagnostic likelihood ratios for benign disease were 0.62, 0.33, and 0.28 for FDG-PET/CT, IgG, and IgM antibodies, respectively. When both IgG and IgM were positive (n = 8), no nodules were cancerous and six were FDG-PET/CT avid. CONCLUSIONS: A positive EIA test for both IgM and IgG strongly suggested histoplasmosis etiology and benign granuloma for 12% of benign nodules arising from a highly endemic region. Presence of either IgG or IgM histoplasma antibodies was associated with benign disease. The EIA test was more sensitive in assessing histoplasma exposure than immunodiffusion serology. IMPACT: A new CLIA-certified histoplasmosis antibody EIA test measures histoplasmosis exposure, offers a possible alternative clinical diagnosis for benign IPNs, and may improve IPN evaluation while avoiding harmful invasive biopsies.

Racial Disparities in Lung Cancer Survival: The Contribution of Stage, Treatment, and Ancestry.

INTRODUCTION: Lung cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Racial disparities in lung cancer survival exist between blacks and whites, yet they are limited by categorical definitions of race. We sought to examine the impact of African ancestry on overall survival among blacks and whites with NSCLC cases. METHODS: Incident cases of NSCLC in blacks and whites from the prospective Southern Community Cohort Study (N = 425) were identified through linkage with state cancer registries in 12 southern states. Vital status was determined by linkage with the National Death Index and Social Security Administration. We evaluated the impact of African ancestry (as estimated by using genome-wide ancestry-informative markers) on overall survival by calculating the time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) for Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for relevant covariates such as stage and treatment. We replicated our findings in an independent population of NSCLC cases in blacks. RESULTS: Global African ancestry was not significantly associated with overall survival among NSCLC cases. There was no change in model performance when Cox proportional hazards models with and without African ancestry were compared (AUC = 0.79 for each model). Removal of stage and treatment reduced the average time-dependent AUC from 0.79 to 0.65. Similar findings were observed in our replication study. CONCLUSIONS: Stage and treatment are more important predictors of survival than African ancestry is. These findings suggest that racial disparities in lung cancer survival may disappear with similar early detection efforts for blacks and whites.

Second-generation p-values: Improved rigor, reproducibility, & transparency in statistical analyses.

Verifying that a statistically significant result is scientifically meaningful is not only good scientific practice, it is a natural way to control the Type I error rate. Here we introduce a novel extension of the p-value-a second-generation p-value (pδ)-that formally accounts for scientific relevance and leverages this natural Type I Error control. The approach relies on a pre-specified interval null hypothesis that represents the collection of effect sizes that are scientifically uninteresting or are practically null. The second-generation p-value is the proportion of data-supported hypotheses that are also null hypotheses. As such, second-generation p-values indicate when the data are compatible with null hypotheses (pδ = 1), or with alternative hypotheses (pδ = 0), or when the data are inconclusive (0 < pδ < 1). Moreover, second-generation p-values provide a proper scientific adjustment for multiple comparisons and reduce false discovery rates. This is an advance for environments rich in data, where traditional p-value adjustments are needlessly punitive. Second-generation p-values promote transparency, rigor and reproducibility of scientific results by a priori specifying which candidate hypotheses are practically meaningful and by providing a more reliable statistical summary of when the data are compatible with alternative or null hypotheses.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for predicting the response of locally advanced breast cancer to neoadjuvant therapy: a meta-analysis.

This meta-analysis assesses the prognostic value of quantitative dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) and diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI) performed during neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) of locally advanced breast cancer. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify studies of quantitative DCE-MRI and DW-MRI performed during breast cancer NAT that report the sensitivity and specificity for predicting pathological complete response (pCR). Details of the study population and imaging parameters were extracted from each study for subsequent meta-analysis. Metaregression analysis, subgroup analysis, study heterogeneity, and publication bias were assessed. Across 10 studies that met the stringent inclusion criteria for this meta-analysis (out of 325 initially identified studies), we find that MRI had a pooled sensitivity of 0.91 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.80 to 0.96] and specificity of 0.81(95% CI, 0.68 to 0.89) when adjusted for covariates. Quantitative DCE-MRI exhibits greater specificity for predicting pCR than semiquantitative DCE-MRI ([Formula: see text]). Quantitative DCE-MRI and DW-MRI are able to predict, early in the course of NAT, the eventual response of breast tumors, with a high level of specificity and sensitivity. However, there is a high degree of heterogeneity in published studies highlighting the lack of standardization in the field.

Assessment of Fluorodeoxyglucose F18-Labeled Positron Emission Tomography for Diagnosis of High-Risk Lung Nodules.

Importance: Clinicians rely heavily on fluorodeoxyglucose F18-labeled positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) imaging to evaluate lung nodules suspicious for cancer. We evaluated the performance of FDG-PET for the diagnosis of malignancy in differing populations with varying cancer prevalence. Objective: To determine the performance of FDG-PET/computed tomography (CT) in diagnosing lung malignancy across different populations with varying cancer prevalence. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter retrospective cohort study at 6 academic medical centers and 1 Veterans Affairs facility that comprised a total of 1188 patients with known or suspected lung cancer from 7 different cohorts from 2005 to 2015. Exposures: 18F fluorodeoxyglucose PET/CT imaging. Main Outcome and Measures: Final diagnosis of cancer or benign disease was determined by pathological tissue diagnosis or at least 18 months of stable radiographic follow-up. Results: Most patients were male smokers older than 60 years. Overall cancer prevalence was 81% (range by cohort, 50%-95%). The median nodule size was 22 mm (interquartile range, 15-33 mm). Positron emission tomography/CT sensitivity and specificity were 90.1% (95% CI, 88.1%-91.9%) and 39.8% (95% CI, 33.4%-46.5%), respectively. False-positive PET scans occurred in 136 of 1188 patients. Positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 86.4% (95% CI, 84.2%-88.5%) and 48.7% (95% CI, 41.3%-56.1%), respectively. On logistic regression, larger nodule size and higher population cancer prevalence were both significantly associated with PET accuracy (odds ratio, 1.027; 95% CI, 1.015-1.040 and odds ratio, 1.030; 95% CI, 1.021-1.040, respectively). As the Mayo Clinic model-predicted probability of cancer increased, the sensitivity and positive predictive value of PET/CT imaging increased, whereas the specificity and negative predictive value dropped. Conclusions and Relevance: High false-positive rates were observed across a range of cancer prevalence. Normal PET/CT scans were not found to be reliable indicators of the absence of disease in patients with a high probability of lung cancer. In this population, aggressive tissue acquisition should be prioritized using a comprehensive lung nodule program that emphasizes advanced tissue acquisition techniques such as CT-guided fine-needle aspiration, navigational bronchoscopy, and endobronchial ultrasonography.

High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Concentration and Acute Kidney Injury After Cardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiac surgery is associated with increased short- and long-term mortality. Inflammation, oxidative stress, and endothelial dysfunction and damage play important roles in the development of AKI. High-density lipoproteins (HDLs) have anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties and improve endothelial function and repair. Statins enhance HDL's anti-inflammatory and antioxidant capacities. We hypothesized that a higher preoperative HDL cholesterol concentration is associated with decreased AKI after cardiac surgery and that perioperative statin exposure potentiates this association. METHODS AND RESULTS: We tested our hypothesis in 391 subjects from a randomized clinical trial of perioperative atorvastatin to reduce AKI after cardiac surgery. A 2-component latent variable mixture model was used to assess the association between preoperative HDL cholesterol concentration and postoperative change in serum creatinine, adjusted for known AKI risk factors and suspected confounders. Interaction terms were used to examine the effects of preoperative statin use, preoperative statin dose, and perioperative atorvastatin treatment on the association between preoperative HDL and AKI. A higher preoperative HDL cholesterol concentration was independently associated with a decreased postoperative serum creatinine change (P=0.02). The association between a high HDL concentration and an attenuated increase in serum creatinine was strongest in long-term statin-using patients (P=0.008) and was further enhanced with perioperative atorvastatin treatment (P=0.004) and increasing long-term statin dose (P=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: A higher preoperative HDL cholesterol concentration was associated with decreased AKI after cardiac surgery. Preoperative and perioperative statin treatment enhanced this association, demonstrating that pharmacological potentiation is possible during the perioperative period. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique Identifier: NCT00791648.

Variables affecting maximum urethral closure pressure (MUCP) and abdominal leak point pressure (ALPP) measurements.

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: The relationship between pelvic floor muscles and measurements of urethral function is not well studied. It is not known whether adjusting for clinical, demographic and urodynamic parameters would improve the association between MUCP and ALPP. Our hypothesis was that pelvic floor muscle strength (PFMS) influences the relationship between MUCP and ALPP. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of women who underwent a complex urodynamic study with evaluation of MUCP and ALPP using ICD-9 codes with documentation of PFMS. RESULTS: Urodynamic stress incontinence was confirmed in 478 patients, of whom 323 had MUCP recorded and 263 had both MUCP and ALPP recorded. Women with higher PFMS had a higher MUCP. In regression analysis ALPP at 150 mL and MUCP were weakly associated (coefficient 0.43, 95% CI 0.08-0.78; p = 0.02), whereas ALPP at capacity and MUCP were moderately associated (coefficient 0.60, 95% CI 0.25-0.95; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that MUCP and ALPP at 150 mL were weakly associated and that this improved to a moderate association for ALPP at capacity. MUCP increased with increasing PFMS among women with stress urinary incontinence and decreased with increasing age. There was no evidence that ALPP was associated with PFMS or age. The relationship between MUCP and ALPP was unchanged when accounting for covariates of PFMS (age, parity, BMI, prior procedure, urethral mobility, bladder capacity, stage of cystocele, or stage of uterine or apical prolapse).

Latent variable modeling improves AKI risk factor identification and AKI prediction compared to traditional methods.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is diagnosed based on postoperative serum creatinine change, but AKI models have not consistently performed well, in part due to the omission of clinically important but practically unmeasurable variables that affect creatinine. We hypothesized that a latent variable mixture model of postoperative serum creatinine change would partially account for these unmeasured factors and therefore increase power to identify risk factors of AKI and improve predictive accuracy. METHODS: We constructed a two-component latent variable mixture model and a linear model using data from a prospective, 653-subject randomized clinical trial of AKI following cardiac surgery (NCT00791648) and included established AKI risk factors and covariates known to affect serum creatinine. We compared model fit, discrimination, power to detect AKI risk factors, and ability to predict AKI between the latent variable mixture model and the linear model. RESULTS: The latent variable mixture model demonstrated superior fit (likelihood ratio of 6.68 × 1071) and enhanced discrimination (permutation test of Spearman's correlation coefficients, p < 0.001) compared to the linear model. The latent variable mixture model was 94% (-13 to 1132%) more powerful (median [range]) at identifying risk factors than the linear model, and demonstrated increased ability to predict change in serum creatinine (relative mean square error reduction of 6.8%). CONCLUSIONS: A latent variable mixture model better fit a clinical cohort of cardiac surgery patients than a linear model, thus providing better assessment of the associations between risk factors of AKI and serum creatinine change and more accurate prediction of AKI. Incorporation of latent variable mixture modeling into AKI research will allow clinicians and investigators to account for clinically meaningful patient heterogeneity resulting from unmeasured variables, and therefore provide improved ability to examine risk factors, measure mechanisms and mediators of kidney injury, and more accurately predict AKI in clinical cohorts.

A general approach to risk modeling using partial surrogate markers with application to perioperative acute kidney injury.

BACKGROUND: Surrogate outcomes are often utilized when disease outcomes are difficult to directly measure. When a biological threshold effect exists, surrogate outcomes may only represent disease in specific subpopulations. We refer to these outcomes as "partial surrogate outcomes." We hypothesized that risk models of partial surrogate outcomes would perform poorly if they fail to account for this population heterogeneity. We developed criteria for predictive model development using partial surrogate outcomes and demonstrate their importance in model selection and evaluation within the clinical example of serum creatinine, a partial surrogate outcome for acute kidney injury. METHODS: Data from 4737 patients who underwent cardiac surgery at a major academic center were obtained. Linear and mixture models were fit on maximum 2-day serum creatinine change as a surrogate for estimated glomerular filtration rate at 90 days after surgery (eGFR90), adjusted for known AKI risk factors. The AUC for eGFR90 decline and Spearman's rho were calculated to compare model discrimination between the linear model and a single component of the mixture model deemed to represent the informative subpopulation. Simulation studies based on the clinical data were conducted to further demonstrate the consistency and limitations of the procedure. RESULTS: The mixture model was highly favored over the linear model with BICs of 2131.3 and 5034.3, respectively. When model discrimination was evaluated with respect to the partial surrogate, the linear model displays superior performance (p < 0.001); however, when it was evaluated with respect to the target outcome, the mixture model approach displays superior performance (AUC difference p = 0.002; Spearman's difference p = 0.020). Simulation studies demonstrate that the nature of the heterogeneity determines the magnitude of any advantage the mixture model. CONCLUSIONS: Partial surrogate outcomes add complexity and limitations to risk score modeling, including the potential for the usual metrics of discrimination to be misleading. Partial surrogacy can be potentially uncovered and appropriately accounted for using a mixture model approach. Serum creatinine behaved as a partial surrogate outcome consistent with two patient subpopulations, one representing patients whose injury did not exceed their renal functional reserve and a second population representing patients whose injury did exceed renal functional reserve.

68Ga-DOTATATE Compared with 111In-DTPA-Octreotide and Conventional Imaging for Pulmonary and Gastroenteropancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

UNLABELLED: Neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) are uncommon tumors with increasing incidence and prevalence. Current reports suggest that (68)Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT imaging improves diagnosis and staging of NETs compared with (111)In-DTPA-octreotide and conventional imaging. We performed a systematic review of (68)Ga-DOTATATE for safety and efficacy compared with octreotide and conventional imaging to determine whether available evidence supports U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval. METHODS: Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Reviews electronic databases were searched from January 1999 to September 2015. Results were restricted to human studies comparing diagnostic accuracy of (68)Ga-DOTATATE with octreotide or conventional imaging for pulmonary or gastroenteropancreatic NET and for human studies reporting safety/toxicity for (68)Ga-DOTATATE with 10 subjects or more thought to have NETs. Direct communication with corresponding authors was attempted to obtain missing information. Abstracts meeting eligibility criteria were collected by a research librarian and assembled for reviewers; 2 reviewers independently determined whether or not to include each abstract. If either reviewer chose inclusion, the abstract was accepted for review. RESULTS: Database and bibliography searches yielded 2,479 articles, of which 42 were eligible. Three studies compared the 2 radiopharmaceuticals in the same patient, finding (68)Ga-DOTATATE to be more sensitive than octreotide. Nine studies compared (68)Ga-DOTATATE with conventional imaging. (68)Ga-DOTATATE estimated sensitivity, 90.9% (95% confidence interval, 81.4%-96.4%), and specificity, 90.6% (95% confidence interval, 77.8%-96.1%), were high. Five studies were retained for safety reporting only. Report of harm possibly related to (68)Ga-DOTATATE was rare (6 of 974), and no study reported major toxicity or safety issues. CONCLUSION: No direct comparison of octreotide and (68)Ga-DOTATATE imaging for diagnosis and staging in an unbiased population of NETs has been published. Available information in the peer-reviewed literature regarding diagnostic efficacy and safety supports the use of (68)Ga-DOTATATE for imaging of NETs where it is available.

Safety and Efficacy of 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT for Diagnosis, Staging, and Treatment Management of Neuroendocrine Tumors.

UNLABELLED: Our purpose was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of (68)Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT compared with (111)In-pentetreotide imaging for diagnosis, staging, and restaging of pulmonary and gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. METHODS: (68)Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT and (111)In-pentetreotide scans were obtained for 78 of 97 consecutively enrolled patients with known or suspected pulmonary or gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. Safety and toxicity were measured by comparing vital signs, serum chemistry values, or acquisition-related medical complications before and after (68)Ga-DOTATATE injection. Added value was determined by changes in treatment plan when (68)Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT results were added to all prior imaging, including (111)In-pentetreotide. Interobserver reproducibility of (68)Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT scan interpretation was measured between blinded and nonblinded interpreters. RESULTS: (68)Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT and (111)In-pentetreotide scans were significantly different in impact on treatment (P < 0.001). (68)Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT combined with CT or liver MRI changed care in 28 of 78 (36%) patients. Interobserver agreement between blinded and nonblinded interpreters was high. No participant had a trial-related event requiring treatment. Mild, transient events were tachycardia in 1, alanine transaminase elevation in 1, and hyperglycemia in 2 participants. No clinically significant arrhythmias occurred. (68)Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT correctly identified 3 patients for peptide-receptor radiotherapy incorrectly classified by (111)In-pentetreotide. CONCLUSION: (68)Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT was equivalent or superior to (111)In-pentetreotide imaging in all 78 patients. No adverse events requiring treatment were observed. (68)Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT changed treatment in 36% of participants. Given the lack of significant toxicity, lower radiation exposure, and improved accuracy compared with (111)In-pentetreotide, (68)Ga-DOTATATE imaging should be used instead of (111)In-pentetreotide imaging where available.